2019-2020 / SOCI1241-1

Calculating probabilities in the social sciences

Duration

30h Th, 30h Pr

Number of credits

 Bachelor in human and social sciences6 crédits 
 Bachelor in human and social sciences (Nouveau programme)5 crédits 
 Bachelor in sociology and anthropology6 crédits 
 Extra courses intended for exchange students (Erasmus, ...) (Faculté des Sciences sociales)6 crédits 
 Bachelor in information and communication5 crédits 

Lecturer

Philippe Lambert

Language(s) of instruction

French language

Organisation and examination

Teaching in the second semester

Schedule

Schedule online

Units courses prerequisite and corequisite

Prerequisite or corequisite units are presented within each program

Learning unit contents

This course, consisting of a bit more than ten theoretical lectures, is an introduction to probability theory and statistical inference. Probabilities are presented as measures of uncertainty. The rules regulating their manipulation are derived. The concepts of random variable and probability distribution are defined. The basic discrete and continuous probability distributions are studied with some of their properties. Statistical inference is introduced in a Bayesian framework with the estimation of a proportion. Posterior distributions and credible intervals are defined. These tools are used to compare proportions. The same inference strategy is used to estimate a mean or the difference of two means. The extension to the comparison of several means is studied using the ANOVA model. In the last part, techniques for comparing proportions obtained from paired data are presented. The concepts of association and independence between categorical variables are also defined with the associated testing procedures. Practicals are organized parallely to the theoretical lectures.

Learning outcomes of the learning unit

To understand the concept of probability and its usefulness in the quantification and the modelling of uncertainty ; to understand and to be able to use the basic strategies required to estimate and compare proportions or means from survey data.

Prerequisite knowledge and skills

Pre-requisite: a course in descriptive statistics such as STAT0002-2

Planned learning activities and teaching methods

Practicals will be organised to help students in the resolution of exercises useful to understand the theoretical lectures.

Mode of delivery (face-to-face ; distance-learning)

The theoretical lectures and the practicals will take place during the 2nd semester on a weekly basis.

Recommended or required readings

The slides used during the course will be made available.

Assessment methods and criteria

A written exam will be organised during the exam sessions of May-June and August-September.

Work placement(s)

Organizational remarks

Attending the theoretical lectures is compulsory: it is a necessary condition to access the practicals.

Contacts

Philippe LAMBERT, Faculté des sciences sociales, Bât B31, local R.54, tél: 04/366.59.90, email: p.lambert@uliege.be

Adaptation of teaching commitments following the COVID-19 pandemic for the May-June 2020 session

Teaching methods implemented : distance-learning

Theoretical lectures: podcasts based on the slides made available at the very beginning of the lectures are available on Unicast via myUliege and eCampus. Forums were created on eCampus for students to submit their questions.
Practicals: they are organized around podcasts detailing the solutions to the exercises usually presented by the assistant in a classroom. These podcasts are available on Unicast through myULiege and eCampus. Other exercises with their final solutions are also available in eCampus. Students can post their questions on eCampus using forums. Students can also meet the assistant on Lifesize if necessary.

Assessment subjects

All the initially foreseen topics were presented using distant teaching in full agreement with the announced calendar for the lectures at the beginning of the semester. Therefore, all the presented contents will potentially be involved during the evaluation.

Assessment methods

The assessment is made during a written exam on the eCampus platform.

Contacts

  • Philippe LAMBERT: p.lambert@uliege.be
  • Patrick ITALIANO (Assistant): p.italiano@uliege.be
  • Forums sur eCampus

Adaptation of teaching commitments following the COVID-19 pandemic for the Aug-Sept 2020 session

Assessment subjects

All the initially foreseen topics were presented using distant teaching in full agreement with the announced calendar for the lectures at the beginning of the semester. Therefore, all the presented contents will potentially be involved during the evaluation.

Assessment methods

The assessment is made during a written exam on the eCampus platform.

Contacts

  • Philippe LAMBERT: p.lambert@uliege.be
  • Patrick ITALIANO (Assistant): p.italiano@uliege.be
  • Forums on eCampus

Items online

Course notes and exercises
Course notes and exercises