Methods of futurology and strategic analysis

Duration

30h Th

Number of credits

Lecturer

Sébastien Brunet

Substitute(s)

Frédéric Claisse

Language(s) of instruction

French language

Organisation and examination

Teaching in the first semester, review in January

Schedule

Schedule online

Units courses prerequisite and corequisite

Prerequisite or corequisite units are presented within each program

Learning unit contents

Anticipation is an essential skill for contemporary public action. Among the anticipatory tools available to decision-makers (in both the public and private sectors), prospective (a French-style school of foresight thinking) stands out for its distinctive posture towards the future, understood as open, plural and uncertain. It is a collective intelligence approach that aims to inform present action by exploring possible futures.

Developed in France after the Second World War, in a context of rising uncertainty and dissatisfaction with bureaucratic planning, prospective seeks to move beyond short-term analyses by integrating the long term into strategic thinking.

This course offers a structured introduction to prospective, including core principles, key concepts, main steps, tools, and schools of thought.

Particular attention will be given to:

• the links between prospective and public decision-making/policy;
• the distinction between prospective and other anticipatory approaches (forecasting, planning, modelling, risk management);
• the historical development of the discipline (the French tradition of prospective) and its specificities compared to other approaches (Strategic Foresight, Futures Studies).

• theoretical lectures, delivered ex cathedra;
• guided readings and critical class discussions;
• occasional collective in-class exercises.

Learning outcomes of the learning unit

By the end of the course, students will be able to:

• conceptualise the core notions of prospective (uncertainty, disruptions, weak signals, scenarios, actors, drivers of change, key variables, etc.);
  
  
• explain the main stages of a prospective approach (defining the scope, diagnosis, scenario building, strategy);
  
  
• situate prospective among other anticipatory approaches and understand its epistemological specificities;
  
  
• apply basic prospective tools (morphological analysis, scenario matrices, drafting a variable sheet, etc.);
  
  
• adopt a future-oriented reading of reality in order to identify factors of change (signals, trends, drivers, critical disruptions, etc.), particularly through structured foresight scanning ;

• develop a critical perspective on the use of prospective within public institutions.

Prerequisite knowledge and skills

None

Planned learning activities and teaching methods

• Lectures illustrated with examples from public action;
  
  
• Guided readings (book excerpts and articles);
  
  
• Collective class discussions on texts and case studies;
  
  
• Methodological role-play exercises in class (based on foresight workshop formats).
  
  

Mode of delivery (face to face, distance learning, hybrid learning)

Face-to-face course


Further information:

ATTENTION: the course is given in even years: it will be given in 2026-2027; 2028-2029, etc.

It will therefore NOT be given in 2027-2028, etc.

 

Note: in years when the course is not offered in person, students are invited to complete a written assignment consisting of designing a complete prospective approach on a given topic.

Course materials and recommended or required readings

Further information:

Platform(s) used for course materials:
- eCampus
- MyULiège


Recommended reading :

- Jean-Luc Guyot & Sébastien Brunet (eds.), Construire les futurs, Presses universitaires de Namur, 2014. Recommended reading ;


Required reading :

- Slideshows from each session (published after each class on the e-campus or MyUliege platform) ;

- Supplementary readings (published periodically on the e-campus platform)




















 

Exam(s) in session

Any session

- In-person

written exam ( open-ended questions )


Further information:

The written exam (70% of the final grade) covers the material seen in class.

In addition to the exam, a written assignment (30% of the final grade), to be completed in groups (minimum 2 students), will be required of students. The assignment must be submitted before the exam session, on a date to be agreed.

For the 2026-2027 academic year, the assignment will consist of a preparatory foresight study on one of the megatrends identified by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), as part of IWEPS's MEGAWAL project.

Work placement(s)

IWEPS (Walloon Institute for Evaluation, Foresight and Statistics) offers internships to students.

Address: Route de Louvain-la-Neuve 2, 5001 Belgrade (Namur)

Email: info@iweps.be

Organisational remarks and main changes to the course

The course is held every EVEN academic years ONLY (2026-2027,2028-2029...) 

The course will therefore be organised in 2026-2027. It will NOT be organised in 2027-2028.

Contacts

Prof. Frédéric Claisse (adjunct Professor)

fclaisse@uliege.be

Association of one or more MOOCs

There is no MOOC associated with this course.