Methods of futurology and strategic analysis

Duration

30h Th

Number of credits

Lecturer

Sébastien Brunet

Substitute(s)

Frédéric Claisse

Language(s) of instruction

French language

Organisation and examination

Teaching in the first semester, review in January

Schedule

Schedule online

Units courses prerequisite and corequisite

Prerequisite or corequisite units are presented within each program

Learning unit contents

Anticipation is an essential skill for contemporary public action. Among the anticipatory tools available to decision-makers (in both the public and private sectors), prospective (a French-style foresight approach) stands out for its distinctive posture towards the future, understood as open, plural and uncertain. It is a collective intelligence approach that aims to inform present action by exploring possible futures.

Developed in France after the Second World War, in a context of rising uncertainty and dissatisfaction with bureaucratic planning, prospective seeks to move beyond short-term analyses by integrating the long term into strategic thinking.

This course offers a structured introduction to prospective, including core principles, key concepts, main steps, tools, and schools of thought.

Particular attention will be given to:

• the links between prospective and public decision-making/policy;
  
  
• the distinction between prospective and other anticipatory approaches (forecasting, planning, modelling, risk management);
  
  
• the historical development of the discipline (the French tradition of prospective) and its specificities compared to other approaches (Strategic Foresight, Futures Studies).
  
  

• theoretical lectures;
  
  
• guided readings and critical class discussions;
  
  
• occasional collective in-class exercises.
  
  

Learning outcomes of the learning unit

By the end of the course, students will be able to:

• conceptualise the core notions of prospective (uncertainty, disruptions, weak signals, scenarios, actors, drivers of change, key variables, etc.);
  
  
• explain the main stages of a prospective approach (defining the scope, diagnosis, scenario building, strategy);
  
  
• situate prospective among other anticipatory approaches and understand its epistemological specificities;
  
  
• apply basic prospective tools (morphological analysis, scenario matrices, foresight scanning, drafting a variable sheet, etc.);
  
  
• develop a critical perspective on the use of prospective within public institutions.
  
  

Prerequisite knowledge and skills

None

Planned learning activities and teaching methods

• Lectures illustrated with examples from public action;
  
  
• Guided readings (book excerpts and articles);
  
  
• Collective class discussions on texts and case studies;
  
  
• Brief in-class methodological exercises.
  
  

Mode of delivery (face to face, distance learning, hybrid learning)

Face-to-face course


Further information:

This course is delivered in EVEN academic years ONLY: it will be offered in 2026-2027, 2028-2029, etc.

 

It will therefore NOT be delivered in 2025-2026, 2027-2028, etc.

Course materials and recommended or required readings

Further information:

- Jean-Luc Guyot et Sébastien Brunet (Eds), Construire les futurs, Presses universitaires de Namur, 2014. - Required reading

- A portfolio of selected readings will be provided on the course platform (year 2026-2027)

Exam(s) in session

Any session

- In-person

written exam ( open-ended questions )


Further information:

Individual written exam during the exam session.

Format: comprehensive applied essay : students will be asked to design a prospective approach in response to a given request (1 out of 3 proposed topics).

Assessment criteria:

• Quality of reasoning and argumentation (25%)
  
  
• Use of course knowledge (theoretical references, links to other case studies) (25%)
  
  
• Relevance and originality of the proposed design (25%)
  
  
• Critical thinking and reflexivity (particularly: ability to distinguish between factual statements and value judgements) (25%)
  
  

Work placement(s)

IWEPS (Walloon Institute for Evaluation, Foresight and Statistics) offers internships to students.

Address: Route de Louvain-la-Neuve 2, 5001 Belgrade (Namur)

Email: info@iweps.be

Organisational remarks and main changes to the course

The course is held every EVEN academic years ONLY (2026-2027,2028-2029...) 

It will therefore NOT be delivered in 2025-2026.

Contacts

Prof. Frédéric Claisse

fclaisse@uliege.be

Association of one or more MOOCs