2020-2021 / SOCI1241-1

Calculating probabilities in the social sciences

Duration

30h Th, 30h Pr

Number of credits

 Bachelor in human and social sciences6 crédits 
 Bachelor in human and social sciences (Nouveau programme)5 crédits 
 Bachelor in sociology and anthropology6 crédits 
 Extra courses intended for exchange students (Erasmus, ...) (Faculté des Sciences sociales)6 crédits 
 Bachelor in information and communication5 crédits 

Lecturer

Philippe Lambert

Language(s) of instruction

French language

Organisation and examination

Teaching in the second semester

Schedule

Schedule online

Units courses prerequisite and corequisite

Prerequisite or corequisite units are presented within each program

Learning unit contents

This course, consisting of a bit more than ten theoretical lectures, is an introduction to probability theory and statistical inference. Probabilities are presented as measures of uncertainty. The rules regulating their manipulation are derived. The concepts of random variable and probability distribution are defined. The basic discrete and continuous probability distributions are studied with some of their properties. Statistical inference is introduced in a Bayesian framework with the estimation of a proportion. Posterior distributions and credible intervals are defined. These tools are used to compare proportions. The same inference strategy is used to estimate a mean or the difference of two means. The extension to the comparison of several means is studied using the ANOVA model. In the last part, techniques for comparing proportions obtained from paired data are presented. The concepts of association and independence between categorical variables are also defined with the associated testing procedures. Practicals are organized parallely to the theoretical lectures.

Learning outcomes of the learning unit

To understand the concept of probability and its usefulness in the quantification and the modelling of uncertainty ; to understand and to be able to use the basic strategies required to estimate and compare proportions or means from survey data ; perform certain analyzes with the JASP software.
 

Prerequisite knowledge and skills

Pre-requisite: a course in descriptive statistics such as STAT0002-2

Planned learning activities and teaching methods

Practicals will be organised to help students in the resolution of exercises useful to understand the theoretical lectures.

Mode of delivery (face to face, distance learning, hybrid learning)

The theoretical course and practical work take place during the 2nd quadrimester on a weekly basis. They will combine podcasts, forums, interactive distance and face-to-face sesssions.

Organisational adjustments related to the current health context

Recommended or required readings

The slides, podcasts and exercise resolutions used during the course and the practical work will be made available to the students on eCampus. The JASP software is free and accessible to everyone.
 
 

Assessment methods and criteria

Below you will find information on the evaluation methods planned for in-person and remote exams as well as those planned for hybrid sessions. Depending on how the health crisis evolves, the chosen method will be communicated to you no later than one month before the start of the exam session.

Any session :

- In-person

written exam ( open-ended questions )

- Remote

written exam ( open-ended questions )

- If evaluation in "hybrid"

preferred remote


Additional information:

A written exam will be organised on eCampus during the exam sessions of May-June and August-September.

Work placement(s)

Organizational remarks

  • Attendance at the theoretical course is compulsory and conditions access to practical work sessions ;
  • eCampus will centralize practical information and the access to the course material.

Contacts

Philippe LAMBERT, Faculté des sciences sociales, Bât B31, local R.54, tél: 04/366.59.90, email: p.lambert@uliege.be

Items online

Course notes and exercises
Course notes, exercises, podcasts and forums