2019-2020 / STAT0067-4

Probability and statistical inference

Duration

50h Th, 15h Pr

Number of credits

 Bachelor in economics and business management6 crédits 

Lecturer

Louis Esch

Language(s) of instruction

French language

Organisation and examination

All year long, with partial in January

Schedule

Schedule online

Units courses prerequisite and corequisite

Prerequisite or corequisite units are presented within each program

Learning unit contents

1st part : Probability Theory
- Random situations, events and probability - Conditioning, probability trees and independance - Random variables and probability distribution - Typical parameters and moments of r.v. - Stochastic convergences - Theoretical distributions I (discrete laws, continuous laws and limit theorems) - Multivariate r.v. - Moments of multivariate r.v. - Stochastic processes - Applications
2nd part : Statistical inference
- Introduction (object, variables, observations, population and sample) - Sampling and sampling distribution - Theoretical distributions II - Point estimation (estimators : properties and construction) - Confidence interval estimation - Statistical tests (principle and power, conformity and comparison, non parametrical tests) - Inference for regression

Learning outcomes of the learning unit

- Allow to understand probability calculus and to modelize random situations - Provide probabilistic basics useful for statistical inference, operational research and financial and actuarial applications) - Allow to use principles and basic methods of statistical inference (estimation and tests)
In a general way, this course will allow to reach the following learning objectives :
- Strategy : The course will allow students to demonstrate scientific precision and a critical mind in the analysis of a complex situation. - Implementation : The course will train the student to capitalize on the characteristics of a more and more digitalized world when confronted with a complex situation. - Adaptability : The course will encourage students to be creative, self sufficient and full of entrepreneurial spirit in their studies as well as in their professional life.

Prerequisite knowledge and skills

- Descriptive statistics
- Elements of differential and integral calculus

Planned learning activities and teaching methods

Mode of delivery (face-to-face ; distance-learning)

- Ex-cathedra lectures (theory)
- Exercises with groups

Recommended or required readings

Copy of slides

Reference books
- ROSS S.M., Initiation à la théorie des probabilités, Presses polytechniques romandes
- DROESBEKE J.J., Eléments de statistique, Ellipses

Assessment methods and criteria

1st and 2nd session : written exam for the two parts "Probability" and "Statistical Inference". The two parts are about theory and exercises.
If each mark for the two parts "Probability" and "Statistical Inference" is (strictly) greater than 5/20, the global mark will be the average of the partial marks. Otherwise, it will be the smallest.
In case of 2nd session, an exemption will be given for the possible succeeded part (at least 10/20, theory + exercises). In case of failure in 2nd session, no partial exemption will be given for next year.

Work placement(s)

Organizational remarks

Contacts

Professor
Louis Esch
HEC-Ecole de gestion de l'Université de Liège (bâtiment N1)
Tél. : 04/232.73.00
e-mail : louis.esch@ulg.ac.be

Teaching assistants
S. Maron, Bât. N1, Local 306. Tél. : 04 232 73 01
e-mail : Sabine.Maron@ulg.ac.be
M.-C. Cillis, Bât. N1, Local 306. Tél. : 04 232 73 41
e-mail : mccillis@ulg.ac.be

Adaptation of teaching commitments following the COVID-19 pandemic for the May-June 2020 session

Teaching methods implemented : distance-learning

Partly face to face - partly online

Assessment subjects

See document on Lol@ (section Examen) : http://lola.hec.uliege.be/pluginfile.php/217795/mod_resource/content/1/Mati%C3%A8re_PrIS.pdf

Assessment methods

- Theory : written exam - multiple choice questions - online
- Exercices : written exam - open questions - online

Contacts

Adaptation of teaching commitments following the COVID-19 pandemic for the Aug-Sept 2020 session

Assessment subjects

Same content as for June session

Assessment methods

Written exam (MCQ) online, on eCampus.

Contacts

Items online

syllabus
theory and exercises