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| SOCI1241-1 | Calculating probabilities in the social sciences
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| Duration : | 30h Th, 30h Pr |
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| Credits/ECTS : |
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| Holder(s) : | Philippe Lambert |
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| Language : | Langue française |
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| Course contents : | This course, consisting of a bit more than ten theoretical lectures, is an introduction to probability theory and statistical inference. Probabilities are presented as measures of uncertainty. The rules regulating their manipulation are derived. The concepts of random variable and probability distribution are defined. The basic discrete and continuous probability distributions are studied with some of their properties. Statistical inference is introduced in a Bayesian framework with the estimation of a proportion. Posterior distributions and credible intervals are defined. Logistic regression is introduced and illustrated with the analysis of survey data with focus on the interpretation of the associated software output. The same inference strategy is used to estimate a mean or the difference of two means. The extension to the comparison of several means is proposed with the ANOVA model. Practicals are organized parallely to the theoretical lectures. |
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| Course objective : | To understand the concept of probability and its usefulness in the quantification and the modelling of uncertainty ; to understand and to be able to use the basic strategies required to estimate, compare or model proportions or means from survey data. |
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| Prerequisites : | A course in descriptive statistics. |
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| Workshops : | Practicals will be organised to help students in the resolution of exercises useful to understand the theoretical lectures. |
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| Organization : | The theoretical lectures and the practicals will take place during the 2nd semester on a weekly basis. |
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| Written notes : | The slides used during the course will be made available. |
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| Assessment : | A written exam will be organised during the exam sessions of May-June and August-September. |
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| Contacts : | Philippe LAMBERT, Institut des sciences humaines et sociales, Bât B31, local 1.10, tél: 04/366.59.90, email: p.lambert@ulg.ac.be |
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